COMMUNITY PERCEPTIONS OF FLOOD INCIDENCE AND PERCEIVED CLIMATE-CHANGE LINKAGES IN SELECTED FLOOD-PRONE LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS (LGAS) OF GOMBE STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract

Flooding has become a recurrent environmental hazard in Gombe State, Nigeria, with increasing concerns over its linkage to climate change and changing rainfall characteristics. This study assessed community perceptions of flood incidences and their climate change linkages in Gombe State. A four-stage multistage sampling design, incorporating systematic random sampling at the household level, was employed to select 384 household heads across the four selected LGAs for questionnaire administration. Of these, 340 questionnaires were returned and analysed, yielding a response rate of 88.5%. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, while Pearson's Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) was used to test the hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance. The findings revealed that 67.7% of the respondents were aware of climate change, while 32.3% had no awareness. Regarding flood occurrence, 69.0% perceived that flood events had slightly increased compared with twenty years ago, 9.0% reported a great increase, 16.0% perceived a slight decrease, 6.0% reported a great decrease, and 4.0% indicated that flood frequency had remained unchanged. Furthermore, 41.2% of the respondents perceived that rainfall events had become much more intense over the past decade, 23.5% believed rainfall had become slightly more intense, 25.0% perceived rainfall intensity had reduced, 4.5% observed no noticeable change, while 5.9% were uncertain. Spearman’s Rank Correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between residents' awareness of climate change and perceived flood frequency (r = 0.482, p < 0.05), leading to the rejection of the null hypothesis. The study concluded that there is a statistically significant association between residents’ awareness of climate change and their perceived flood-frequency changes; however, the findings reflect community perceptions rather than proof of climatic causation. Therefore, the results should be generalised to similar communities with caution. It recommends strengthening climate change awareness programmes, expanding community-based early warning systems, improving urban drainage infrastructure, enforcing land-use planning regulations, and integrating local knowledge into flood risk management and climate adaptation strategies in the study area.