GEOSPATIAL ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF LAND USE/LAND COVER DYNAMICS ON FLOODING IN MEME RIVER WATERSHED, LOKOJA, NIGERIA. 0 0
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.83374/jesber.vol1no2.81Keywords:
Land Cover Change, Flood Susceptibility, Remote Sensing, HAND Model, Meme WatershedAbstract
Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes is seen as one of the factors that influence hydrological processes, often intensifying flood occurrences, particularly in rapidly urbanizing tropical watersheds. This study examined the Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics on Flooding in Meme River Watershed, Lokoja, Nigeria. An integrated approach combining multi-temporal remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) model was adopted. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1991, 2001, 2011, 2021, and 2024) was processed and classified in ArcGIS, while the HAND model was implemented in Google Earth Engine using the MERIT Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to delineate flood-prone areas. The accuracy of the LULC classifications was assessed using confusion matrix statistics and the Kappa coefficient. The findings revealed significant land use and land cover (LULC) transformations between 1991 and 2024. Built-up areas increased from 5.01 km² to 51.93 km², while farmland expanded from 14.73 km² to 399.77 km². Conversely, sparse vegetation declined markedly from 783.42 km² to 386.14 km², and dense vegetation decreased from 40.88 km² to 9.35 km². These landscape changes suggest a potential increase in flood susceptibility, given that the expansion of built-up areas and loss of vegetation are widely recognized as factors that can reduce infiltration and enhance surface runoff. The HAND-based flood susceptibility analysis revealed that 89.46 km² (10.54%) of the study area falls within the very high flood susceptibility zone, while 81.64 km² (9.62%), 132.14 km² (15.92%), and 542.45 km² (63.92%) are classified as high, moderate, and low susceptibility zones, respectively. Overall, approximately 20% of the study area is located within the high and very high flood susceptibility zones, which are predominantly concentrated along river corridors and low-lying floodplains. The results shows that the combined effects of rapid land use change and inadequate flood management are intensifying the exposure of communities, infrastructure, and livelihoods to flood hazards. Therefore, this study recommends enforcement of building laws and regulations particularly within and around natural drainage corridors, strengthening drainage infrastructure and promoting sustainable agricultural practices to reduce flood vulnerability across the watershed.Downloads
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