TREND OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN NORTHERN TARABA STATE FROM 1984 TO 2024: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE. 0 0

Abstract

Temperature variations have become an important indicator of climate change, particularly in regions where agriculture depends largely on rainfall. This study examined the trend of temperature anomalies in Northern Taraba State, Nigeria, from 1984 to 2024 and discussed their possible implications for agricultural production. Annual temperature data were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), Yola station, and analysed using temperature anomaly analysis, descriptive statistics, five-year grouped mean, and simple linear regression. Temperature anomalies were calculated relative to the long-term mean temperature of 365.61 °C-months (30.47°C). The results showed alternating periods of positive and negative anomalies throughout the study period, indicating the occurrence of both warmer-than-average and cooler-than-average years. However, positive anomalies became more frequent from the late 1990s onward, suggesting a gradual shift towards warmer conditions. The highest positive anomaly was recorded in 2004 (+18.6), while the most pronounced negative anomaly occurred in 1989 (−17.6). Descriptive statistics revealed a mean annual temperature of 365.61, a standard deviation of 7.83, and a coefficient of variation of 2.14 per cent, indicating relatively low year-to-year variability. The regression analysis revealed a positive trend in temperature over the study period, with an unstandardized regression coefficient of B = 0.188 and R² = 0.083), indicating a gradual increase in temperature over the 41-year period. The observed increase in temperature is likely to intensify evapotranspiration, reduce soil moisture, increase crop water requirements, accelerate crop maturity, and heighten heat stress, thereby reducing agricultural productivity in the predominantly rain-fed farming systems of Northern Taraba State. The study recommends strengthening climate advisory services, promoting heat-tolerant crop varieties and climate-smart agricultural practices, and expanding irrigation and sustainable land management to enhance farmers' resilience to rising temperatures.